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上海的卷子,广州抄不了

  • 2026-02-04 23:26:38
上海的卷子,广州抄不了
上海出了新政策。
收购二手房作为保租房，目前暂时考虑在浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区试点。
选的浦东、静安、徐汇这三个区很有意思，都是上海的核心区。而且收购的标的也有要求----70平以下、总价控制在400万左右的小户型二手房。
这些区域有个共同特点：土地开发基本饱和，新增住宅供应极少，但就业岗位高度集中——浦东是金融和科技企业聚集地，静安徐汇是传统商业和行政中心。
收购的钱从哪里来呢。
上海也说的很明白，“区级财政资金+企业自有资金+商业银行贷款”，要求是遵循“群众可负担、运营可持续”原则。所以，保租房未来的收益，是要能覆盖收购成本和偿还贷款，能可持续运营的。
要知道，保租房的租金是比市场价要低的，成都我记得是市场价的7成左右，这意味着，收购价要跑赢成本，还要算帐。
总体来说，上海政府依然宣布了这个政策，充分说明：它是有市场化考虑的，目的也很明确：
收购来的保租房 第一要能租的出去（所以才有要求地铁覆盖，配套成熟布局合理，优先产业中心附近），第二，通过市场价收购，释放一批业主去买新房，变相托楼市，第三，解决新青年的保障性住房需求。 
那广州跟不跟呢。
我觉得有点难。
先说最实际的问题：钱从哪里来。
上海明确说了，靠区级财政+企业资金+银行贷款，而且租金收益要能覆盖成本。这意味着不能亏本干。
但广州的老破小集中区——比如海珠西、白云同和、荔湾部分板块——租金回报率普遍只有1.5%左右。而保租房租金还要比市场价低两三成。
这笔账怎么算都平不了，除非财政长期贴钱，但这不可能的嘛，广州现在更着急的可能是卖地收入和新房去库存好吗
2025年11月的数据，广州全市新房去化周期已经接近24.5个月，政府首先要帮开发商卖新房，根本就不是自己下场当房东。
再看选址。
上海选的三个区都是就业中心：浦东盯着陆家嘴和张江，静安围着南京西路，徐汇靠着徐家汇。这些地方年轻人多，租房需求旺，房子确实好租。
反观广州的老破小板块，附近缺少高密度就业中心。
政府在海珠西收一批房子，明显不如去番禺黄埔收开发商的一手存量房性价比高啊。
同样都是收，海珠老破小100多万，亚运城也是100多万，租金打7折，远点大家也是愿意去的。二手老破小谈起来麻烦，还要重新装修运营，收个亚运城，中海感激涕零，还能要求它再拿一块地，给广州做贡献，那个性价比更高不是一清二楚么。
其实从城市发展阶段也能看出来差别。
上海核心区已经没地了，只能在存量房里想办法，广州还处在扩张期，新区建设、产业落地才是主线任务。
而且各区都有新的就业中心，黄埔的知识城还在引进企业，南沙的港区还在建码头，增城的新塘还在搞交通枢纽——政府的精力和资金，肯定优先投向这些能带来税收和就业的新区，要投要收存量房，肯定也是先紧着附近做过贡献开发商。
所以结论很清楚了：广州短期内不会跟进上海的做法。
老破小业主还是要从旧改、城市更新里找机会，指望政府大规模收购不太现实啊。
大家还是要自寻出路。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000880s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=c460;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001401s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000667s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.005944s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001285s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.014511s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001451s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 483280 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.144343s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770297979 WHERE `id` = 483280 [ RunTime:0.040149s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 65 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.022470s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 483280 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.011435s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 483280 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.009980s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 483280 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.008566s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 483280 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.003047s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 483280 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001957s ]
0.438003s